Each month, Justin Miller, Principal Broker at Christie's International Real Estate Bluegrass, analyzes the local real estate market in Central and Southern Kentucky and breaks down the data.
NEW LISTINGS
Year-to-date, 14,304 new listings have hit the market in 2023, 16% less than 17,078 as of this time in 2022. Over the last four months, new listings have closed the gap on 2022 totals by 14.5%. July 2023 saw 20.6% fewer new listings at 1,503 compared to 1,894 in July 2022, while October 2023 was only 6% behind 2022 numbers with 1,350 new listings versus 1,437 in October 2022. This margin narrowing is worth highlighting given the recent market challenges, particularly related to the lack of inventory to support demand.
SOLD LISTINGS, MEDIAN SALES PRICE
Existing home sales in October 2023 were 1,017, 9% fewer than the 1,118 that closed in September 2023. Year-to-date sold listings remain 19% lower through October with 10,818 closings compared to 13,390 in 2022, which is more an effect of 16% fewer new listings than an indicator of demand. Homes are selling at 97% of the list price, and 2023 prices have continued to hold above 2022 prices.
Since April, the median sales price has hovered between $250,000-$260,000 ($269,100 in July being an exception). October followed suit, with a median sales price of $257,500. While in previous years there was continued month-over-month appreciation, the second half of 2023 has shown some stabilization.
INTEREST RATES, NAR FORECAST
With the Fed seeming to indicate they may be finished raising rates, along with reports showing softening inflation numbers, the 30-year fixed rate dropped to 7.5% from just below 8% a few weeks ago.
In their latest market report, the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) is forecasting a further drop for the 30-year fixed, predicting by early spring 2024 rates to be closer to 6%-7%. With prices continuing to stay above 2022 numbers, a 2% drop in interest rates should benefit the market as a whole. Sellers will find it easier to justify breaking away from their locked-in 4% rates, and many sidelined buyers will finally have a lessened barrier of entry. With the potential for more favorable conditions on the horizon, NAR is also forecasting a 13% increase in existing-home sales and a 19% increase for new construction in 2024.
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About Us
At Christie’s International Real Estate Bluegrass, we believe that luxury describes an experience. With Central Kentucky’s best REALTORS® and a powerful global platform that offers world-class marketing, industry-leading technology, and international reach, the firm is focused on providing the highest level of service and professionalism to clients at every price point. Celebrating all that the Bluegrass State has to offer, we are excited to speak to you about our full range of services and more. Luxury Lives Here. Graphs courtesy of Bluegrass REALTORS, Freddie Mac, and the National Association of REALTORS