Each month, Justin Miller, Principal Broker at Christie's International Real Estate Bluegrass, analyzes the local real estate market in Central and Southern Kentucky and breaks down the data. In June 2024, we're taking a look at 2024 trends so far, how the forecasts compare to reality, and what's to come in the second half of the year.
NEW LISTINGS
1,707 new listings came to market in June, a 2.3% increase from June 2023. 2024 is holding at 6% more new listings than 2023 through the first half of the year, yet inventory continues to trend at historically low levels. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) forecasted a 30% inventory increase in 2024 and factored in the Fed cutting rates at least once or twice by now, however, there have not been any cuts so far in 2024.
In June inflation softened below 3% for the first time since March 2021, and unemployment levels moved above 4% for the first time since November 2021. These numbers are closer to the target range the Fed wants to hit before issuing a rate cut, which many economists predict will be in September. Any drop in rates would be a boost to the real estate industry, as most sellers are buyers and a sub-7% 30-year fixed rate is a little easier to digest for many sellers who would be letting go of their 3-3.5% 30-year fixed rates.
PENDING LISTINGS
June 2024 pending sales edged slightly higher with 1,250, compared to 1,213 in June 2023. Year-to-date, 2024 is relatively flat with 6,980 pending sales to the 7,091 seen in 2023.
Historically, pending sales trend down from May to June. Pending sales have dropped on average 5.56% during this time period since 2018, with many sellers/buyers doing summer traveling. 2024 was no exception, falling 5.66% from May. However, June to July pending sales historically have been on average 2.4% higher. With new listings growing, and if the Fed cuts rates, pending sales could have a stronger-than-normal second half of the year. July numbers will be a good indicator to watch.
SOLD LISTINGS
Sold listings dropped 5.2% in June 2024 to 1,214 from 1,281 in June 2023. Year-to-date totals are 1.9% lower with 6,194 units sold compared to 6,314 at this time last year. Sales have been slower than anticipated in the first half of 2024 but, again, many forecasts were factoring at least one Fed rate cut in the first half of the year.
Another factor in June’s dip in sold listings could also be related to the median sales price jumping to $289,500 from $277,550 in May, and 11.3% higher than June 2023’s median sale price of June 2023’s median sale price of $260,000. Year-to-date, 2024’s median sales price is $271,000, 8.4% higher than $250,000 in 2023. The continual value appreciation is driven by a strong demand and low inventory. Distressed property sales and mortgage delinquency rates remain low, which also limits the available inventory. Until there is an influx in inventory and interest rates drop, home prices will continue to see steady inclines.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
Luxury Market Report: 2023 In Review & 2024 Forecast
Home Search
Home Valuation
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