Each month, Justin Miller, Principal Broker at Christie's International Real Estate Bluegrass, analyzes the local real estate market in Central and Southern Kentucky and breaks down the data. In July 2024, we're reflecting on summer and looking ahead to the fall (and election) season.
Sold listings jumped nicely this July, 11.4% more than July 2023, bringing 2024 YTD totals to 7,496. Sales strengthened in light of the median sales price continuing to increase, now $273,000 for 2024, 8.1% higher than 2023, and a sign of strong demand remaining throughout our local market. Attempting to match the demand, July 2024 had 1,651 new listings compared to 1,572 in July 2023. Still historically low, 10,731 new listings YTD in 2024 is 6.4% more listings than in 2023.
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve and their Jackson Hole meeting this week. Recent inflation and jobs data are continuing to trend closer to the Fed’s target range for a rate cut, and coming out of Jackson Hole we should be able to tell if they plan to issue a rate cut in September as many are predicting. Thirty-year fixed-rate fell throughout July, dropping from high 6’s to hovering around the mid 6’s. Further lowering rates would be great news for both buyers and sellers.
Lower rates come at a welcomed time when the market tends to slow down toward the end of the year, especially during election years. Home sales dip closer to 15% in October and November in election years compared to roughly 10% during non-election years. On a positive note, the year, after a presidential election resulted in...
- An increase in home sales after nine out of the last 11 presidential elections;
- An increase in existing home prices after seven of the last eight presidential; and
- An increase in new home prices after 10 of the last 11 presidential elections.
These post-election trends matched with strong buyer demand, lowering interest rates, and rising inventory should set up strong market conditions in the coming months.
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